Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-09-29 18.638817 20.219417 21.957984 24.029125 26.452195 29.226825 32.688681
2024-10-06 16.147160 18.208957 20.638116 23.770458 27.796583 32.943277 40.289949
2024-10-13 14.478910 16.794504 19.666240 23.607900 29.091541 36.839874 49.507465
2024-10-20 13.109714 15.516872 18.616289 23.078065 29.693156 39.882101 58.830777
2024-10-27 12.528274 15.142829 18.645260 23.957484 32.432491 46.953218 79.217503
2024-11-03 11.730155 14.378073 18.021751 23.754333 33.405660 51.385915 98.176022
2024-11-10 11.138277 13.827520 17.620667 23.798545 34.763987 57.057683 126.982529
2024-11-17 10.663905 13.391964 17.327852 23.949665 36.323467 63.866177 172.002210
2024-11-24 10.242258 12.992348 17.039881 24.051747 37.799461 71.290484 243.050258
2024-12-01 9.797804 12.523880 16.597855 23.818839 38.535853 77.266137 339.771502
2024-12-08 9.455021 12.180620 16.318593 23.831191 39.796666 85.696166 554.460013
2024-12-15 9.102590 11.799212 15.944800 23.618531 40.502455 92.970563 979.708610
2024-12-22 8.762760 11.422656 15.558909 23.354224 41.080574 100.642948 2365.246619
2024-12-29 8.463105 11.091792 15.225085 23.153272 41.788154 109.823656 33551.217650
2025-01-05 8.199994 10.803484 14.941714 23.018889 42.650734 121.029858 NaN
2025-01-12 7.896258 10.436575 14.501194 22.520506 42.427123 126.764629 NaN
2025-01-19 7.833714 10.446420 14.705142 23.368708 46.245934 163.474688 NaN
2025-01-26 7.613868 10.193193 14.432303 23.176063 46.940375 181.318882 NaN
2025-02-02 7.444025 10.012696 14.276294 23.219501 48.412296 211.138641 NaN
2025-02-09 7.299590 9.866598 14.171880 23.364947 50.292738 254.677114 NaN
2025-02-16 7.157472 9.717714 14.052616 23.463086 52.071554 310.341980 NaN
2025-02-23 6.981587 9.505786 13.805619 23.239778 52.630694 354.035314 NaN
2025-03-02 6.845863 9.355411 13.664247 23.251677 54.119904 437.944497 NaN